Here's What Experts Have to Say About the Fall Real Estate Market
Leaves are not the only thing falling as we enter the autumn season. But just like the leaves take their time to transition from one color to the next, home prices have also seen a transition. This slow transition means that if you're in the market to sell your home, it's still a good time — the fall real estate market remains fairly strong.
In this post, we'll go over fall real estate market predictions from top experts around the industry.
New Home Sales Pick Up
The market for new homes is staying strong this season. Figures from the U.S. Census Bureau show that new home sales picked up in August, nearly tying last year's record-shattering pace. August new home sales rose almost 29% from July, bringing the annual pace to 685,000 new home sales — just shy of last year's 686,000 sales.
Prices Are Stabilizing, But Not Crashing
Rising interest rates are causing more home prices to level off from their historic highs earlier in the year. But, experts assert the market is not crashing. Instead, they expect prices to stabalize this fall and winter, with some potential declines happening on the West Coast. Although we're seeing prices level off, they're still higher than normal. In fact, they're still 43% higher across the board than they were when the Covid-19 pandemic started. The Huntsville market has seen a 36% overall appreciation since the beginning of 2020.
The Fed will likely continue raising interest rates to try to combat inflation, so if you're flirting with the idea of selling your home, now is the time to act to take advantage of the fall real estate market.
With several experts agreeing that we are not currently in a housing bubble and the market is not expected to crash anytime soon, it's good to know the warning sign of a market crash to watch out for:
- Increasing loan-to-income levels
- Higher mortgage rates
- Lower economic growth
- Rising mortgage balances and mortgage loan numbers
- Overpriced properties that outpace affordability and inflation
- A lack of affordable housing
- Wages remain stagnant while home prices climb
- Cautious builders slow down the number of homes they're building
As prices inch their way up and the housing shortage we saw during the pandemic and shortly after eases, we're seeing more inventory, and homes staying on the market longer. Experts agree that this is no reason to panic. The fall traditionally sees a drop in demand as kids return to school and the weather becomes less prime for moving and showing homes.
As of today, we are shifting back to more 'normal' times as inventory has risen back to 2020 levels in many markets along with less buyer demand out there, meaning buyers are having to do less of the crazy stuff they were having to do during the pandemic to get their offer accepted.
Rising Interest Rates
As we mentioned, interest rates are on the up and up, and that will likely continue as the Federal Reserve does all it can to combat historical inflation. As of September 2022, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 7.6%, a significant increase from the mid-pandemic rates that were below 3%.
Time on Market has Increased
Experts are considering the increase in days-on-market for their fall real estate market predictions. Where this time last year, homes were flying under contact before most buyers could even get into the home for a showing, we are heading back toward a more steady "time on market" average. The average home in the Huntsville and Madison area is currently on the market for 14 days as of September 2022 compared to 11 days in the previous month of August. We are simply noticing a subtle change in normalcy.
Just because you may accept an offer within four hours of listing your home (which can still happen) does not mean your home will still sell fast this fall. The more expensive a home is, the longer it could stay on the market. Even if you are in the market to list a multi-million dollar home, remember, the market is still strong; homes are just not being sold overnight for the most part — but with an effective real estate agent with the appropriate marketing plan for your house, anything can happen!